Recent Performance

Hi,

For the time being, we have paused our betting.

Like you, we have been extremely disappointed by the latest set of results. The post-COVID world (we assume that’s the reason) is proving to quite a challenge for the system.

There is, however, some positive news . We have found a pattern in the system bet history that tells us when it is likely to be on a losing run. We will be including this as a new feature, in the spreadsheet, within the next few days.

A bit of background…

Each of the 6 prediction models, includes a value that we call the “Kelly Decision”. When this value is “1”, the system thinks a model will make more profit by being “fussy” about which races to bet on. Behind the scenes, the system compares it’s Private Odds against the Public Odds, and makes a decision to bet, only if the Private odds are better than the public odds. When a models “Kelly Decision” value is “0”, there is no such restriction, you will see far more tips being published throughout the day.

We have analysed the bet history for the last 12 months, including the 6 models “Kelly Decision” values. We have discovered that the more models that use the “Kelly Decision”, the more profits are adversely affected.

There is no universal prediction model that works all the time. Each day, the system chooses the best 6 available models, based on the last 7 days of results. The system applies the “Kelly Decision” to these models, usually after disruption in the normal patterns of results (we often see it being used after extended periods of bad weather, for example).

There will be changes to the both the spreadsheet and the website over the coming days, to reflect this new approach.

Will update you again when the changes to the system are ready.

Cheers
Nick