Collective Intelligence

Hi All,

We have introduced a new bet-blocking rule today, related to the BetFair Market size for each race. The well established theory behind this approach is called Collective Intelligence.

The principle behind “Collective Intelligence” suggests that “the probability that the highest vote of the group is the correct decision increases with the number of members of the group”. We can infer the number of “votes” for a given runner, by the total amount of money bet on each race. You can see this value in Gruss BA for each race, or in the “Market” sheet in our spreadsheet.

Our system has been designed to lean towards the top 3 runners in each race – as this is where the majority of stakes (>90%) are placed, i.e. where most of the liquidity in each betting market is positioned. We have observed a correlation between Market Size (£), and the profit returned by our system. Whilst we have only collected limited data so far, the correlation suggest we should act on it.

Initially, the new Bet blocking rule will exclude races when the BetFair Market Size is less than £275,000 for a given race. This threshold will be monitored over the coming weeks and months. It will result in approximately a 20% reduction in the number of tips issued.

All the best,

Cheers
Nick