Return to betting

Hi All,

It’s been a while… but the system will return to betting today.

In the background, we’ve been working on a new feature, that uses the recent betting performance of the system, to arrive at a “Performance Score”. This score is now used to automatically control when the system pauses, or resumes betting. The score is calculated each day at around 10:30AM, and is now automatically controlling the “We are betting”, “We are NOT Betting” status message on the website.

The betting markets are obviously in a state of constant change. Whilst we train new prediction models every night, they can take time to adapt, as they are evaluated on the most recent 7 days of performance using hold-out data (data not used to train the models). Hence there is an in-built delay in the models adapting to sudden changes in the market.

The Score is derived from the results of the last 3 full days of betting, using all bet decisions made by the system (including bets that would have been blocked by the stop-loss system). In other words, when the system is “paused”, it will usually require a decent run of bets over 3 days for the system to return to live betting. This may not always be apparent to you, as we do not publish tips blocked by the stop-loss system.

We have extensively tested this new feature – and whilst it doesn’t guarantee we will avoid loss making days, it does appear to dramatically improve the long term performance of the system. It also removes the guesswork, about when to pause/resume betting, which we were never comfortable with anyway.

We will be publishing the daily score value in a few weeks, via a new chart on the website, when there is a decent amount of data to share with you.

Hope that makes sense!

Cheers
Nick