Hi All,
We’ve been conducting analysis on the prices shown in our charts, as the potential for the system was not being accurately reflected.
The Profits on our “Verified Chart” are largely unchanged, but the Simulation Chart is now radically different.
Our charts were previously using the APRMP (Average pre-race market prices), which were obtained by web-scraping data from OddsChecker. We adjusted the average market prices by +6%. The 6% is comprised of BF commission (-2%), and an uplift for BSP (+8%). In our experience, BSP is on average +8% better than the market (all bookies).
We have now decided to use BSP as our primary source of prices, with a fall-back to APRMP if BSP is unavailable from our data supplier. This has had 2 effects:
- The overall Simulated Profits are much improved (which shows the potential for the system, not actual performance)
- The Course Stop-Loss system is now re-enabled.
These changes were made after long term observations of the APRMP, which compares the pre-race prices our charts were based on, to the Betfair Starting Prices.
Cheers
Nick