Changes to our Stop Loss and Resumption of Betting

[nick257]

Hi All,

We’ve been keeping an eye of the performance of our Stop-Loss system, in particular from the 1st March 2021, when a change was made to the system, which modified the way we handle runners with limited history (i.e. foreign horses, or 2 yr olds).

In addition, you may have noticed, the system is now picking runners further down the betting order. This means, that whilst it has remained profitable (in Simulation) since 1st March, the Win-Rate has dropped from around 33% to 25%. This has meant the stop-loss is kicking in quite often and is now harming long term profits.

So, it’s pretty clear that the stop-loss system is due an overall !

From today, these are 2 fundamental changes to the Stop-Loss:

1. The SL limits have been significantly relaxed.
2. The SL limits are now linked to prediction model Win-Rates.

This means we WILL experience very heavy loss days, so when we resume betting, you may want to sit it out for a few days until you have adjusted to the new way of betting.

We will keep an eye on the SL limits over the coming weeks, hopefully the profitable trend seen over the last 6 weeks will continue.

A note on our plans for resumption of Betting: The “WinRate_Runner_2” predictor is still showing a high number of zero values – but it is steadily improving. In other words, very few runners have had >1 race in the last 2 months. We need to wait a bit longer, perhaps 3 or 4 more days.

Cheers
Nick

[Author]

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