Odds on shots

[keedy2075]

Hi,

I seem to remember (but cannot find) some information which suggested that this service was not profitable backing odds on shots. I’ve noticed that it currently IS selecting odds on shots when it used not to?
Am I imagining this?

Kieran

[nick257]

Hi Kieran,

Thanks for the question… the short answer is, it depends on the prediction models the system generates each night.

At the moment the system is picking runners that are on average position 1.3 in the pre-race betting order. The number 1.3 means the sytem will heavily prefer favourites, but will occassionally go for a runner in position 2, or maybe position 3, in the betting order.

At other times this year, the system has generated models that pick runners, further down the betting order. We have prevously seen models averaging position 3.5, which usually means the system has no idea what its doing! We tend to pause betting when these types of models appear.

At this point in the season I can see from the model predictor weightings, that the system in preferring speed ratings, presumably because most horses have now had a few runs throughout the summer. Speed ratings are not reliable at every part of the year – their predictive strength, like all predictors, varies constantly.

Hope that helps,

Cheers
Nick.

[keedy2075]

Thanks for the reply, Nick, that is fair enough.
In short: it’s complicated 😉
Going great today!!

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